Rock, Paper, Scissors

Want to play the classic game Rock, Paper, Scissors? Ok but we'll play under my rules...

Nats Beat Padres

Rangers Beat Nats

Padres Beat Rangers

How did I come up with this? Well simple, because that's the way the trades between these three teams have went this offseason. Suprisingly though on name recognition the opposite team won every deal, which is quite unusual and is why I got interested in this phenomenon

The first trade between these three teams this offseason was the deal involving the Nationals and Padres.

Nats Beat Padres

Nationals trade: Vinny Castilla
Padres trade: Brian Lawrence

Vinny Castilla definitely has a name, but once you get past that he simply doesn't look that great. Outside of the hitter's paradises in Colorado and Houston his highest OPS since 2000 is .771. Using those same restrictions his average yearly OPS since 2000 is .697. To put this is perspective, Sean Burroughs, the player he is set to replace from the Padres, has put up an OPS of .700 since taking over the job in 2002. Since Petco Park in San Diego is considered just as much as a pitcher's park as Washington I don't see how Vinny can be considered any better than his predecessor.

Besides the guy is going to be 38 years old in July...

Brian Lawrance had a bad year last year. In a pitcher's park with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP it wasn't awful but it was definitely below average. However, throughout his career he has been an average to above average pitcher. His career numbers of a 4.11 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP are not ace numbers by any means, but they would look decent at the back of any major league rotation. Plus he's still in his prime at 30 so he should be effective for a few more years... unlike Castilla.

Rangers Beat Nats

Rangers Trade: Alfonso Soriano
Nats Trade: Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge, and Armando Galaragga

Soriano is a part of the 30-30 club and is a former Yankee and hence has been overrated to great extremes by the media. Alfonso Soriano has lots of flaws: he can't take a base on ball (career .320 OBP), his defense is noted as being inconsistent not only by stats but by people watching the game, and he goes through many lapses where he refuses to hustle. Sure he has tons of power but look at the OPS comparisions between Soriano and Wilkerson...

Soriano career OPS - .820
Wilkerson career OPS - .817

Hmm... they look pretty similar. When you consider that Wilkerson has played in huge pitcher's parks his whole career and Soriano at least the past two years has played at Arlington it would not entirely be crazy to say that Wilkerson is the better player basing it on OPS.

When you include the defensive values of the two players and salaries, to me the deal would be in Texas's favor just if it was Soriano for Wilkerson. However not only did Texas get Wilkerson but they also received Sledge and a pitching prosect, Galaragga.

While Galaragga has quite a bit of potential he is pretty much a wildcard that can't be guaranteed to be anything quite yet. Sledge at worst is a good 4th OF and at best could be a Wilkerson clone himself. Yes he has the same characteristics as Wilkerson in that he walks a decent amount (not as much as Wilkerson but still a respectable amount) has some power and some speed. Now do I really think at 29 years old he is going to make the jump to be as good as Wilkerson? No, but I do think he could be a decent 3rd OF on any team.

Padres Beat Rangers

Padres Trade: Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, Billy Killian
Rangers Trade: Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, Terrmel Sledge

This time the big name in the trade is Eaton, and this time he again goes to the loser. Eaton has been touted as a possible ace from the moment he was drafted, but aside from a stint before a finger injury last year he has consistently disappointed. Maybe he'll put it all together this season, but regardless he will be a FA next year and will be wanting around 10 million a year.

Also coming to the Rangers is a pretty good relief pitcher, Otsuka. Otsuka is actually the big prize for the Rangers as in his rookie year he was absolutely fantastic. Last year discounting a couple of appearances with the Diamondbacks he again had a great year, but counting those appearances he had a slightly above average year. Unfortunately like all the other Japanese pitchers before him it may be just a matter of time before major league hitters figure his style out and hit him as well, but more then likely he'll play somewhere between his 2004 and 2005 season for quite a few years, and he is going to be under contract for 4 more years.

Billy Killian is useless to the Rangers. He is a below average catching prospect going to a team who already has Teagarden, Laird, and Nikeas... ie he's useless.

To the Padres you have Chris Young. Chris Young was not a very heralded prospect, but last year in his rookie year he performed well. (4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) In fact considering the ballparks it was as good as any season in Eaton's career especially when comparing their respective WHIPs. To make Young look like an even better deal, whoever controls Young will have him for the next 5 years!

Adrian Gonzalez was selected 1st in the 2000 draft and a couple of years ago was good enough to acquire a closer, Ugueth Urbina. He has done nothing to tarnish his reputation over the past few two years and has been constantly compared to Mark Grace as the worst he could be... his most optimistic comparision is with Rafael Palmeiro. (although if history is any indication he might need some "help" to be that good) Either way unless any unforseen injury hits he should be a good 1st basemen for a long time.

Sledge evidently was acquired to be traded... (see above trade)

In the short term, Texas may win this trade. If Eaton breaks out and performs well at Arlington and Otsuka continues to baffle hitters in 2006 it possibly may even lead to the first playoff appearance since the A-Rod era started. Nevertheless, Young is signed for 5 more years and has already shown to be as good as Eaton is now, Adrian Gonzalez is a top flight prospect that is under contract for another 6 years and should be a good 1st basemen much longer then that, and Sledge very well could be a dependable OF on a major league team. The only way this deal will even look halfway decent for Texas in the next few years is if Texas can sign Eaton long term.

Nats, Padres, Rangers, shoot...