Betemit/Baez deal of 7/28

Dodgers Trade: Danys Baez and Willy Aybar

Braves Trade: Wilson Betemit

Well the Braves wanted to upgrade their bullpen, and evidently thought Baez would help. Baez after all three years ago was regarded as a decent young closers in baseball. Unfortunately although he once had the peripherals worthy as a decent closer he now lacks them. Look at his numbers in the past http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Danys-Baez.shtml and you'll see an unusal trend from the time he entered the majors until last year that even though his ERA consistently went down, his strikeout rate fell every year. This year he has continued the trend to 5.25 batters in 9 innings which is very mediocre for a pitcher, especially a pitcher who only works one inning a game. According to DIPS theory pretty much everything except strikeouts, walks, and homeruns are not dependent on a pitcher but rather the defense and luck, and if Dips theory is correct Baez had been relying more and more on luck every year, and this year the K rate just finally got to such a poor level that it's finally caught up with him. Nowadays he is what he is... a league average relief pitcher who had past success as a closer and is getting the paycheck of a top setup guy or a closer. Unless Baez can improve that K rate or just get some more luck on his side he isn't going to really impress the Braves.

Everybody acts like Willy Aybar is a future utility player in the making. Maybe I'm crazy but his numbers to me show he has decent power for a middle infielder and an okay eye, and although average is very variable as a stat he sure looks like he can consistantly hit the ball. Honestly he reminds me more of Wilson Betemit then anybody else in baseball, with his upside being Carlos Guillen.

Wilson Betemit is finally going to get an everyday job. I'm proud of him as he definitely deserves a shot. However basically what he is, is a one year older, more established version of Willy Aybar who will probably be a league average SS for the next decade.

Final Verdict:

Atlanta: 6 Riley Points - Traded away Betemit for his clone (Aybar) and an expensive league average pitcher who may regain his greatness if he can strike people out again. If Baez didn't cost so much this would warrant an 8 or so.

Dodgers: 4.5 Riley Points - Got rid of an expensive pitcher for a young guy just ready to start. If only they didn't trade away an exact replica of the guy they got.

--Riley Points are given on a scale of 1-10 with 1 being a terrible trade with no redeemable qualities, and 10 will be an amazing deal that has no negative quality to the trade--